The Case For Barack Obama’s Electability

29Apr08

Yesterday the AP came out with a poll showing Hillary Clinton beating McCain by a greater margin then Barack Obama would. Below, I would like to present the case that Barack Obama is more electable then Hillary Clinton.

3 way race
It’s been observed that the current campaign dynamics are Hillary and McCain vs. Obama. Indeed, they are teaming up on him and it’s probably hurting him. However, I’d also like to suggest that Hillary benefits from being considered the middle ground. People know they have three options when asked about the presidential race. I think Clinton’s been able to gain support by seeming to be middle of the road pick. There is a lot of research on how giving people multiple options can lead to irrational decision making and I think this is what’s happening with Hillary.

However, this dynamic, like the 2 against 1 campaigning, is only temporary. In the end,she’ll have get people to vote for her because she is a better choice then McCain. Nobody will remember the primaries in a few months, and then maybe we’ll start to miss the rousing speeches Obama can deliver.

Likability
Hillary Clinton is not likable. Not at all. This is obvious to everybody except around half of the Democratic Party primary voters. I’m not convinced people really vote based on likability, but to any extent that they do Obama is clearly better positioned to take advantage of that.

Experience
Experience doesn’t matter and Hillary doesn’t have it anyway. The last two presidents didn’t have more experience then their rivals. Neither did Reagan or Carter, or Kennedy.

Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, Al Gore, and John Kerry had lots of experience. There is no reason to believe that John McCain calling Obama a whippersnapper is some kind deathblow from which he’ll never recover.

And on top of that Hillary doesn’t actually have more experience than Obama. McCain will claim both Clinton and Obama lack experience.

Hillary Clinton=McCain Lite
It is never a good idea to mimic your opponent and generally leave voters with the impression there is no difference between the Republican and Democratic parties. Hillary has been running hard towards McCain’s positions, and is generally hawkish on foreign policy. If Hillary is the nominee then Iraq won’t be a big issue, because she won’t make withdrawal a big issue. Iraq is an important issue and the Democrats can succeeded by running on Iraq (and win valuable ‘not doing evil’ points in the process).

Change
Believe it or not there is a good reason Obama talks about change so much. Any party trying to take back control of the White House needs to make an affirmative case for change. Hillary Clinton can’t do that as well as Barack Obama can. If you want to bring in new voters and inspire people, Obama is the one you want to get the nomination.

Hillary’s Path to Victory
Hillary only gets the nomination by getting 70% of the superdelegates to support her. Hillary only wins by overturning the delegate selection process. That’s a huge problem. It’s violation of basic fairness. What were we voting for anyway?

It’s true that the superdelegates were meant to do shit like steal an election from an anti-war liberal candidate, but that doesn’t make it right. It doesn’t mean people won’t feel cheated. Obama will endorse Clinton, but people will still be mad. I will be mad.

Obama’s Path to Victory
You might have read these exit polls saying Hillary Clinton supporters like Obama less then Obama supporters like Hillary Clinton. I imagine this has something to with Hillary running a negative campaign, but nonetheless it’s out there.

If Obama wins, it will be by getting more then 31% of the superdelegates and winning elections. There will be no violation of process. Hillary Clinton will endorse Obama and her supporters will fall in line.

Regional Strength
Here is a list of states Hillary won in the primaries where polls suggest Obama could potentially have a hard time winning in the general election:
OH, PA, FL

Here is a list of states Obama won in the primaries that polls suggest Hillary could potentially have a hard time winning in the general election:
VA, WI, MN, IA

(Some people suggest CO, OR, WA, NC are also Clinton problem areas, Obama could swing)

As you see, both candidates really are in trouble if they don’t pick up some of these states. Everybody remembers the past 2 election coming down to Florida and Ohio, but Wisconsin was very close last election. It would be a disaster for the Democrats if they lost it this time.

I actually think it’s very unlikely either Hillary or Obama would lose PA, WI, MN, OR, WA, or IA. It’s a Democratic year and there is really no reason to think the Democratic party is going to do worse the last time anywhere at all. As for Iowa, 3 Democrats got more votes then the Mike Huckabee and he crushed McCain. As for Florida, I’m a little worried that it might be out of reach for either Democrat.

Overall, I’d say regional strength in Florida and Ohio is pretty much the strongest point in favor of Clinton’s electability, given their size and the relative likelihood of Democratic victory compared to VA, NC and CO. However, it’s a pretty shoddy foundation to overturn the delegate selection process.

Filed under: Politics   |  1 Comment
Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Nomination, Democratic Primaries, Electability, Hillary Clinton