So it’s no longer cutting edge to say Obama’s the all but certain nominee, but I figured I’d present you with some delegate math on the subject. According to the Associated Press Obama now needs 178.5 more delegates, 217 delegates are to be decided in upcoming election, and 265 super delegates are uncommitted.
Assuming Hillary doesn’t drop out, a conservative estimate of the delegates Obama can expect to win in the remaining states is around 100. That will leave needing 78.5 (and no I don’t know why he need’s 1/2 a delegate or how exactly he got half a delegate in the first place.)
Barack Obama will then need to get only 30% of the remaining super delegates to win the nomination. If any uncommitted super delegates vote according to the delegate lead or the popular vote lead, they’ll be voting for Obama. If they vote according things like how their district or state voted, they’ll be fairly even split among Hillary and Obama.
I’d expect a few more super delegates to come out the wood work in the next few days for Obama, which will only make the percentage needed by Clinton even more absurdly high. So unless Hillary Clinton is going to take the 6 million loan she gave her campaign and start directly bribing delegates, this race is over.
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