To follow up on the last post here’s some numbers from Kevin Drum about which groups Obama over and under performed his 9 point average swing among the nation as a whole.
Better then Kerry
Income $200,000 or more (+34)
First-time voters (+33)
No high school (+27)
Latinos (+27)
18-29 year olds (+25)
Under $15,000 (+21)
Full-time workers (+19)
Urban (+19)
Non-gun owners (+18)
Non-religious (+16)
Parents with children under 18 (+16)
Worse than Kerry:
Gay/lesbian (-11)
Last minute voters (-8)
Union members (0)
“Other” religions (0)
Gun owners (+2)
White women (+4)
45-59 year olds (+4)
Some of these are head scratchers such as both very rich and very poor people voting heavy for Obama relative to Kerry, but I think you can pretty clearly see where the most important changes occurred. Young and Hispanic voters where clearly the big game changers. Without them we’re talking another close election.
Further, both groups are key to future elections. It would have been nice if the change rhetoric had cut through peoples paranoid gun related fantasizes, but it didn’t really happen. Some people are more ready for change then others, and some people are part of dwindling demographic trends and others can expect to live a country with a lot more people like them in coming years.
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