Climate Change in Historical Context

21May09

One major aspect about climate change that has been missing from main stream media accounts is the history of global warming science and how policy makers have responded so far. The green house effect has been known since the mid 19th century, with the role of carbon dioxide and combustion going as far back as the 1930s with the Callendar effect.

Going from an obscure scientific observation to world wide public policy challenge was a gradual process. Main stream discussion of global warming as something that should or could be arrested by changes in human behavior has been around a while, including warnings from the National Academy of Sciences going back over 30 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was founded 18 years ago.

The major break through on public and policy awareness of climate change came with the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change which closed for signature in 1999. As you can see from the below map, Kyoto Protocol has now been signed and ratified by most of the world, although only the more developed countries have agreed to begin lowering carbon emissions.

Since 2000 the scientific consensus for man made climate change has grown greatly, as has the political commitment to lower carbon emissions. Sadly as we’re all aware the process of gaining global consensus for climate change action hit a snag called the Bush Administration. The world and US completely diverged paths with oilman Dick Cheney dictating US energy policy while rest of the world began to acknowledge and respond to climate change. There was some small progress in 2008 when the Lieberman-Warner climate security act came only 2 votes away from overcoming a filibuster, although it was understood that it would also need to overcome a Presidential veto to pass.

Last week the arrival of the Waxman-Markey draft climate bill was greeted by over 400 hundred amendments including amendments that would have exempted every state and even one for the District of Columbia. Today many of the worst of those amendments were defeated in Committee votes, but that’s only the first of a dozen kill points in the legislative process.

All which is background for saying that the oft repeated claim that Cap and Trade is really just a stealth excuse to raise taxes is absurd. Nor is there is any basis to believe that we need extra amounts of time for debating this bill because it just came out of nowhere.

Climate Change is a real threat, and Cap and Trade is a proven method of response. We didn’t get here overnight.

Cross posted to Carrots and Sticks

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Tags: Climate Change, Kyoto Protocol, Waxman-Markey